How to use it for Buffalo
The calculator opens on Buffalo. Rochester, Syracuse and Watertown are in the area list, and the table below compares every New York area. Enter the snow forecast for your own part of Erie County, when it falls, any freezing rain, the morning temperature and the wind.
Lake-effect snow is narrow
Buffalo’s climate numbers come from the airport, north of the city, and lake-effect bands can miss it completely. In the November 17–19, 2014 storm the National Weather Service recorded that “over 5 feet of snow fell over areas just east of Buffalo, with mere inches a few miles away to the north”, with a maximum of 65 inches in South Cheektowaga. Williamsville’s closing page cites that “Snow-vember” storm as the kind of event that closes schools because staff can’t get to work from other parts of Western New York.
So choose During bus runs when a band is forecast to sit over you in the morning: snow still falling at 7 AM matters more here than the day’s total. Wind above 25 mph also counts, because blowing snow refills plowed roads.
How local districts decide
- Buffalo Public Schools decides with the National Weather Service, its transportation and plant departments, City of Buffalo Public Works, First Student and the NFTA. For unexpected overnight weather the decision comes before 5:00 a.m. The district looks at road conditions, the rate of snow and ice accumulation, wind chill, driving bans and what similar districts do. No buses run when BPS is closed.
- Williamsville decides by about 6 a.m., using road reports from the Amherst Police and the town highway department.
- Amherst decides by 6:15 a.m. from road conditions and weather reports.
Cold days
BPS “will still consider closure” at a −18 °F wind chill, so for Buffalo the calculator uses that rule. Orchard Park’s threshold is colder, −25 °F sustained. Enter −5 °F with a 20 mph wind (a −29 °F wind chill) and the calculator reads above 95%.
Wait for your district’s own message; local TV and radio closings lists cover the whole region.
Buffalo: the numbers the calculator uses
| Snow in an average year | 95 in (242 cm) |
|---|---|
| One-day snowfall reached about once a winter (the snow tolerance) | 9.5 in (24 cm) |
| Average winter low, December to February | 21 °F (−6 °C) |
| Climate station | Buffalo, NY, NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 |
| Headline outcome | Schools closed |
| Cold rule | Buffalo Public Schools (memo of November 4, 2025) will still consider closure in the case of a windchill that reaches −18 °F; Orchard Park may delay or close at a sustained −25 °F. |
| Official call | Buffalo Public Schools: emergency closing procedures: For storms that weren’t expected, BPS says it decides “prior to 5:00 am” and sends a phone call, text and email, with a notice on buffaloschools.org. Amherst decides by 6:15 a.m. and Williamsville by 6 a.m.; local TV and radio list every district. |
Every New York area in the calculator
| Area | Snow a year | Snow tolerance | Winter low |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | 30 in | 6.5 in | 30 °F |
| Long Island | 32 in | 6.5 in | 27 °F |
| Albany | 59 in | 10 in | 19 °F |
| Binghamton | 87 in | 8.5 in | 18 °F |
| Buffalo | 95 in | 9.5 in | 21 °F |
| Rochester | 102 in | 9 in | 21 °F |
| Watertown | 116 in | 11 in | 14 °F |
| Syracuse | 128 in | 10.5 in | 19 °F |